The Entropic Arab Brew
A Region of Conflict
In 2011, the Arab Spring uprisings caught every major oil-importing nation off guard. While the Saudis and Iranians were still able to export their crude, most other Middle Eastern and North African predominantly Muslim nations suffered some variation of regime change or political turmoil. Even for countries like Algeria or Jordan, their parliaments would become vicious vipers nests even if the secular government did not directly combat the Muslim populists. The net consequences were increased sectarianism between Sunni and Shia populations, Islamist state construction in locations where the state had failed (e.g Syria and Iraq), and the repression of Muslim populism by every secular state that could manage it. Mohammed bin Salman’s progressive reforms were not only an act to appease the west, but also a move to suppress religious zealotry before any potential conflict could develop with other predominantly Muslim regional powers.
Nevertheless, the conflict ended, and foreign influencers were leveraged with their need for crude exports out of the Gulf to provide regional security and stability. Strange as it may seem, foreign powers were utilized by the local governments to protect global energy interests and regional integrity. As the United States began its rapid withdrawal from the region, the Arab coalition looked to France to temporarily fill the security gap left empty by the Americans. I am sure that Macron has always dreamed of the “Emperor '' moniker. When faced with the potential to expand French influence over volatile energy markets, he leaped at the opportunity.
As time dragged on, both the French and the Arab and North African powers realized that they hated one another. It only took months for the French ambassadors to be, well, French, and open the discussion for neo-imperialism in the form of permanent military bases. Some countries, like the UAE, used their position to leverage French air support. Others, like Mali, conducted mass protests and uprisings against the French occupation. The French were forced to retreat from Mali in humiliation, even though Macron had overseen one of the most successful anti-jihadist campaigns on the continent. There are some nations in the Middle East today which are prepared to invite foreign interference for the sake of securing themselves militarily against the other regional powers, but others retain the memory of the previous brutal colonial regimes. The problem for burgeoning Arab powers is that foreign powers have historically acted to create unifying and stabilizing conditions in the Arab world. Whether it was the Eastern Roman Empire opposing the Sassanids, or the Austro-Hungarians stopping the Ottoman expansion, the Arab world has been best unified when contained by non-Arab threats.
The Food Problem
The origin of the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 had multiple causes, but the most important was the tripling of food prices as a direct result of a poor harvesting season in Russia. In comparison to other resources, food demand is inelastic. One cannot simply do without, and a slight reduction in the global food supply precipitates famine. American farmers may want to feed the world, but with so many hungry mouths the Americans, Brazilians, New Zealanders, Australians, and French combined cannot hope to compensate for the massive hole left by breadbasket exporters Russia and Ukraine. As of writing this article both Russia and Ukraine should be in the planting season. As Russia continues to wage a brutal scorched earth war against the Ukrainians, Ukraine will become a net wheat importer instead of an exporter. Together Russia and Ukraine make up approximately 14% of the global food supply with their wheat exports. It should be noted that optimist Professor Aaron Smith of UC Davis believes that the shortages coming out of Ukraine and Russia will not lead to mass famine because the rest of the global system will increase production to compensate for the loss of these exports. I disagree for a few main reasons:
Fertilizer. Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia are all exporters of essential fertilizer inputs that would be required to tolerate their subtraction from the market (specifically nitrogen and potassium inputs that have allowed our global yield to track with the increasing population).
Inflation. Food price increases are exponential. While each 1% reduction has been tracked with a 7% increase in food prices, a common-sense analysis would imply that there would be substantially more than a 693% increase in food prices if 99% of food disappeared from the market. These metrics are most likely logarithmic instead of additive (i.e I cannot imagine a bag of Cheetos would only cost stadium prices under these conditions).
Logistics. Supply chain difficulties and disruptions make it unlikely that the most vulnerable markets which the Russians and Ukrainians served will be able to source their supply deficit from other players. Brazil already struggles in logistical squalor to get its wheat to market, and as prices for oil soar in the US, it is not unlikely that corn will be repurposed for ethanol production (Edit: since writing this article the Biden administration just enabled 15% by volume allowances for ethanol fuel year-round, thus encouraging American farmers to plant non-food-grade corn for ethanol production).
Under isolated conditions, assuming fertilizer inputs are separately sourced and hoping that the preexisting supply issues magically resolve themselves, there is a world where the world does not starve. The more likely outcome is that locations that can retain food security will begin using their excess food as a security bargaining chip to retain influence in countries that hold geographical significance, while simultaneously leaving anyone who does not bring value to the table to starve.
The reality is that there are no countries more dependent on Ukrainian and Russian wheat than the Arab powers. Each state from Tunisia to Turkey and Cyprus to Yemen imports a majority of their calories from the Black Sea. Tunisia imports over 80% of its calories from Russia and Ukraine, and Egypt imports the most by volume at 70% of their total consumed calories, weighing in with 670,000 tons of food. The disappearance of these calories cannot just be picked up by neighboring countries, as that whole region is a hotspot for food imports. Countries will have to start fighting amongst themselves for any food that comes from the west, and will likely make security concessions to any intervening power who will trade them food for fuel. Additionally, they will have to defend slow moving shipments as they pass through the Suez Canal, within sight of the Tunisian Coast, or through the Strait of Hormuz. As long as everyone plays nice and chooses to not fight each other over sectarian conflicts, foreign influencers, or general starvation, then just maybe some of the alternatively sourced food will make it to market.
Ready to Fight
The Iranians have a propensity for disruptions, and the Saudis have never shied away from a fight. Let’s begin with the Iranians who, with a few concentrated drone strikes in September of 2019, took down 7% of the world’s oil refining production in a matter of hours by targeting Saudi refining facilities. Not a single life was lost, and the Saudis failed to take down a single drone from the attackers. At the time, most Saudi forces were involved in the Yemen war and were unable to properly respond. Afterward, while the Saudis lined up air defense and naval forces along the Strait of Hormuz to deter future invasions, they also held closed-door meetings with the Iranians. In private conversations, the Saudis told the Iranians in no uncertain terms that any future attacks on refineries would be seen as an act of war, and that the Saudis would purge the Sunni Muslims living around their oil fields as “counter-terrorism measures”. Suffice to say their message did not go over well, and the Iranians threatened to do the same to the Shia Muslim populations living around their gas fields. Both sides walked away with sharpened knives, and it will not take more than an accidental (or purposeful) blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to bring them to the brink of war once again.
Further west, the Turks are concerned with regional dominance and the Egyptian military has been itching for a fight since the Six-Day War. Turkey has undergone Ottoman-esque remilitarization, acquiring military technological supremacy over all of their neighbors. While Turkey is situated at a crossroads between western and eastern influences, this new military supremacy has given them a singular bargaining chip in any future Middle Eastern negotiations. Many things have been said about Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: sensible has rarely been one of them. Turkey’s geography and military has provided it with negotiating power for any western powers that seek to maintain energy security from oil shipments out of the region, but whether Erdoğan uses that ability to wield power as a broker or as a despot is yet to be seen. This will happen under a suppression of the Kurds in the east and the Syrians to the south, so only time will tell just how heavy handed the Turks are prepared to be. Under Al-Sisi the Egyptians have transformed from oligarchy to a military dictatorship. Al-Sisi may be hailed as a progressive leader by the Copts, but is reviled by Muslim populists. In an attempt to mollify both sides, he has secured information flow through Egypt to a single network connection that can be cut off by the military at any time. When the people starve, Al-Sisi has all the tools required to commandeer anything he needs to maintain power while keeping his people in isolation. Egypt has to contend both with the other Middle Eastern powers and the North African powers for a rapidly disappearing quantity of resources: a recipe for disaster.
To be a Puppet, a Proxy, or in Peril
The Arab world has suffered much over the past century. From imperialism to failed regimes and failed coup attempts, the region has not inspired international observers with stability or progressive peace agreements. While many look to Israel and Palestine to dictate the environment, I see far more conflict coming out of their neighbors than anything we’ve seen from this contentious couple. Peace can be maintained in the region when outside powers act as a security blanket, but that is going to require non-regional players to take sides in centuries-long feuds that make Russia and Ukraine look like brothers in arms. China has already financially backed Iran, so whoever backs the Saudis in that fight will have to secure their energy exports through a tiny bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz while hoping the Iranians and Saudis will play nice; an unlikely outcome at best. In addition, states like Yemen, Iraq, or Syria are not perfectly situated to become sites of proxy wars between the Middle Eastern powers as they struggle for a limited number of resources and foreign actors willing to take favorable sides. Assuming the Europeans all work together, there will at least be a European coalition, a Chinese coalition, and an Oceanic coalition to contend with. However, infighting between those coalitions could lead to the fragmenting of the subject states into a collection of chaotic warlord-ruled sand dunes. For the countries that cannot even make themselves into a useful partner or proxy, they will have to watch from a distance as any food security sails past them for more profitable or interesting lands. Any state who cannot feed their people without having security resources will have to make itself into a puppet state or risk falling into complete chaos as food prices skyrocket beyond anything we saw during the Arab Spring.
~ Fin ~
Resources:
https://www.dw.com/en/middle-east-faces-severe-wheat-crisis-over-war-in-ukraine/a-61056418
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/06/21/us-iran-tensions-threaten-the-worlds-most-important-oil-shipping-route
