How the German Greens Enabled the Russian War
A History of the Powers at Play
The Congress of Vienna at the beginning of the 19th century oversaw the restoration of borders after the Napoleonic Wars, but the diplomats present at the congress were all very well aware that simply restoring borders would enable another Paneuropean conflict that would destroy the hard fought peace. All of the major powers had paid a terrible price, Russia and France more so than anyone, and the peace they wanted to create had to work for everyone to keep a delicate balance of powers in concert with one another. Land was taken from the smaller German and Polish regions and given to Prussia and Russia so that each could keep the other in balance, and the Austrians were to be kept as a diplomatic balancing piece maintaining sovereignty over northern Italy and a newborn German military alliance. For much of European history, Germany and Russia have been locked in an inexorable struggle. The Russians have never had the strength to completely dominate Germany without paying an incredible price, and Germany has easily swept through vast swaths of Russian territory unable to capitalize on their holdings. Across the Polish and Ukrainian trenches, both sides eyed each other as dance partners in a concert: simultaneously ambitious for and weary of the other. All of that blew up after World War II, and Germany was forcibly disassembled as a realist entity and into a constructivist entity that would have to seek its security from the rest of Europe. Now, as before, Germany is being forced to reckon its geography into policy procedures, but there remain constructivist elements in the German political sphere that are making that transition painful for themselves and the countries that depend on Germany hegemony.
Russia has spent the majority of its history as a realist power because of its precarious borders. The Russian state identity, as we know it today, was born out of overthrowing the Mongol Khans in guerilla warfare. The principalities that took over after overthrowing the Mongols were as brutal as their former occupiers and entrenched the oligarchic brutalization of the serfs to maintain some semblance of security. As the centuries churned on, Russia has had moments of progressive reform and ideology that have been brought to heel by the needs of the state. The Soviets exemplified this ideal better than anyone, for among their aspirations to liberate the proletariat from the yoke of the Kulaks, they inevitably sent many of those same oppressed persons to the gulags for the sake of state security. Nothing is politically sacrosanct to the Russians, and nothing could outweigh the value of border security and internal stability. To the Russians, the war in Ukraine is a matter of national survival, and they’re not wrong. Unless Moscow plugs the Besarbian gap and the Polish gap there is nothing to stop invaders from dancing their way to Moscow one plot of scorched earth at a time. The argument has been made that Moscow is under no threat from its neighbors, but Russia does not look today but to the future, and without border security, Russia sees no future.
In direct opposition to Russia, Germany would love nothing more than to see an indefinite extension of the current system. Historically, Germany has been a fragmented power, but when unified it has the tendency to dominate each of its neighbors individually. While Germany is stronger than every other single state around it, Germany is weaker than everyone else combined, and traditionally undergoes cycles of growth and internal dismemberment. After World War II and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Germany has enjoyed a veritable golden era where it has been able to export its security concerns to the NATO alliance and the American Navy while simultaneously focusing on its industry. To the Germans peace is good for business, because if they have to militarize it will spook everyone else around them. The Germans would rather quietly dominate economically and let others fight their battles. To that extent the centrist German political parties, the SPD and the CDU, have sought to keep every other European power exactly where they are by holding different levers of power. The way these parties kept Russia in line was simple: they used energy security. And then the Greens screwed it all up.
Russia is the leading exporter of natural gas, and second only to Saudi Arabia in crude oil. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian Oligarchs and Putin's cadre captured many of the tangible assets in the country, and situated themselves at the bottlenecks of Russia's energy exports. The SPD and CDU previously supported coal initiatives to keep themselves at capacity for energy independence from Russia. The thought has been that if the Germans could turn off the tap for Russian oil and gas then they could disincentivize Russian aggression. International oil tankers and domestic nuclear power plants were not just an economic cushion to the Germans, but a security guarantee against Russian aggression, and the Greens torched all that.
The Greens
The Greens are led by a 28 year old named Ricarda Lang. Ricarda Lang is famous for championing environmentalism in conjunction with social justice, feminism, body positivity, and queer politics: foreign policy has never been a concern for her. Lang succeeded two other Green party leaders, Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck. Annalena Baerbock shares all of Lang’s current views and is currently sitting on Sholz’s cabinet as foreign minister while having little to no interest in anything that goes beyond environmental populism. Robert Habeck maintains a ‘Green New Deal’ in Europe has to be the top priority and is currently sitting as Germany's Vice Chancellor. Habeck had himself admitted that traditionally 55% of gas, 50% of coal, and 30% of oil imports come from Russia, with no clear substitute. For the Greens the solution was obvious: if Germany is so dependent on fossil fuels from Russia then Germany should do the only sensible thing and turn its nuclear power plants offline (if this sounds ridiculous then you’re overqualified to serve in the German Green party). This action has made Germany dependent on both Russian imports, but also has forced Germany to start burning lignite, a type of coal so hazardous it produces more fossil fuels than burning wood. In brief, the German Greens have successfully turned off a stable form of energy in that of nuclear power so that they could increase their carbon footprint by burning lignite and become completely economically dependent on Russia for energy. If the Germans ever turn off the tap for Russian gas and crude, the Greens have made it so the entire German economy goes offline with it, then how will Germany pay for security build up in the face of Russian Aggression?
Putin’s Gamble
Currently, Russia is taking a coin toss that the Germans cannot or will not deter Russia from invading Ukraine. The Germans could turn off the tap, but doing so would completely derail their economy and disable their means to afford a military buildup necessary to deter Russian aggression in the future. In addition, if the Germans keep the tap turned on then Russia will flood every drop of crude they can through Europe via their pipelines that do not freeze over, and maintain a permanent cash flow despite international sanctions. Annalena Baerbock visited Ukraine before the Russia invasion, and gave every indication that she would be more than happy to turn off the spigot given the change and allow the Russian economy to descend into free fall. As long as the Greens have a chokehold over Sholz, it seems likely that Germany will continue to make terrible decisions that risk throwing all of Eastern Europe into war all for the unrealized goal of reducing carbon emissions in impossible ways.
~ Fin ~
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-moving-step-by-step-toward-russian-energy-embargo-habeck-2022-04-04/
